Kidnapping industry threatens Bola Tinubu's reelection bid in Nigeria

Mass abductions and economic strain create severe headwinds for the APC ahead of January polls.

Insecurity was a defining issue during Nigeria's 2015 election, and it remains a central challenge ahead of the presidential polls scheduled for January, operating on a far larger scale with severe consequences for the national economy.¹

The 2015 election took place a year after nearly 300 schoolgirls were abducted from a school in the northeastern town of Chibok by the jihadist group Boko Haram.¹ That mass abduction captured international headlines and established the template for a kidnap-for-ransom strategy that criminal gangs have refined across northern Nigeria.¹ In recent years, those operations have generated copycat abductions in other parts of the country, transforming mass kidnapping into an organized industry.¹

The political coalition

The 2015 election also proved decisive in President Bola Tinubu's ascent to leadership.¹ Tinubu fused his political base in southwestern Nigeria with the northern following of politician Muhammadu Buhari to form the All Progressives Congress.¹ Buhari capitalized on widespread public outrage over the Chibok abductions to become the first opposition candidate in Nigerian history to unseat an incumbent president, and Tinubu later succeeded Buhari in the presidency.¹

The security crisis that aided the rise of the All Progressives Congress has now expanded well beyond the original jihadist insurgency in the northeast.¹ When combined with the rising cost of living linked to Tinubu's overhaul of economic policy, the spread of abductions represents the most significant danger to his campaign for a second term.¹

Tinubu's principal political rivals are building their campaigns on promises that they can provide better physical protection for citizens while reducing everyday living costs.¹ In the 2023 election, a fractured opposition vote allowed Tinubu to win the presidency.¹ Even if his opponents split the vote again in the upcoming contest, growing public anger over persistent violence could leave him limping through to reelection.¹

Economic implications

The operational reach of kidnap-for-ransom groups continues to disrupt daily life and basic security across the country. Earlier this month, armed attackers abducted hundreds of people from mosques, marking the latest episode in an extended series of assaults targeting civilian populations, according to reporting by Lagos-based correspondent Alexander Onukwue.¹

The scale of the insecurity poses an acute risk to the administration's broader financial objectives. The macroeconomic benefits anticipated from Tinubu's policy reforms could be steadily eroded if commercial investors conclude that pervasive kidnappings and violence make it fundamentally unsafe to operate in Nigeria.¹

Reporting note: this piece draws on reporting and analysis by Alexis Akwagyiram and Alexander Onukwue published August 31, 2026.

Source: Alexis Akwagyiram via Semafor, August 31, 2026

References

This article is based on 1 source, listed in the order they are cited.

1. 1 AA Alexis Akwagyiram announcement · 31 Aug 2026 View: How kidnapping became an industry in Nigeria See the source